I made a couple of changes.

I don’t see Arizona or Nevada aligning with the California Socialist Republic (Калифорнийская Социалистическая Республика) with the exception of Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas). Clark County is ideologically quite different than the rest of the state. When Nevada citizens voted on expanded background checks, the measure was defeated in every county except Clark County which was sufficiently populous to give the measure a very narrow win. So I carved Clark County out of Nevada and grafted it onto the CSR.

The Rust Belt Republic has enough differences with the Yankee Union that I see it splitting the Union geographically. It might sway toward the YU in some areas; in others it might go with New Dixie or (more likely) the Republic of Texas.

Michigan is actually the swing state in the Rust Belt Republic; both Indiana and Ohio are more inclined toward the Republic of Texas.